Expert: US unlikely to change policy towards Belarus
We are discussing these issues with Roman Yakovlevski, a commentator for the Wider Europe internet portal and Andrei Sannikov, the international coordinator at the Minsk-based human rights group Charter’97.
Why do elections in America grab so much media attention?
Yakovlevski: Judging by the reaction of the society, elections in the US is more interesting than the presidential elections in Russia. The American elections have an intrigue which is a proof of democracy and transparency. Different from voters in Belarus or Russia, Americans have a choice, indeed.
Democrats have been out of power for quite a long period of time. What are the chances that Democrats come to power this time?
Yakovlevski: I think that Democrats and Republicans have equal chances. I wouldn’t put the question this way, because after the primaries in 22 states on Super Tuesday, Democrats have not yet picked a clear leader. Obama and Clinton still enjoy similar chances. In this regard, the intrigue of this election is that we cannot say exactly today who will become the president of the United States.
Sannikov: One can’t say who has more chances. I think that the current developments show that both the Democrats and the Republicans have almost similar chances. The candidates have not been nominated yet. A lot will depend on the pairs, on who will be next to McCain and who will be running next to a democratic candidate.
To what extent are the results of the primaries important? Can we judge about the next president after the primaries? Can we draw any conclusions now?
Yakovlevski: The results of the primaries in 22 states have demonstrated that Republican supporters picked their candidate – John McCain. The fight between Democrats is still in full swing. The party congresses will take place in September when the presidential candidates will be officially nominated.
I will stress one again that different from presidential elections in Belarus and Russia American voters have a real choice. Their votes matter. Unfortunately, we can’t say in the same manner about the previous presidential elections in Belarus and the upcoming elections in Russia.
If Democrats come to power in the US, what would it mean to Belarus? Generally, how will the US elections influence on Belarus?
Yakovlevski: The US elections will have no impact in Belarus. Their policy towards the official Minsk will continue to be rigid. It will not change.
Sannikov: Regarding Belarus, Democrats and Republicans have a consensus. They share the same stance as regards the situation with human rights or assistance to pro-democracy forces in Belarus. Democrats and Republicans can cooperate very well. By the way, Mrs Clinton met with our women. Through Charter’97, she also sent a letter of support to the women and democracy in Belarus. We also had a meeting with McCain. He keeps mentioning Belarus during his current campaign.
Therefore, I think that since the situation in Belarus is absolutely abnormal, there would be no disagreements on this situation in democratic countries.
Yakovlevski: Nobody forecasts any changes. The ruling regime should not hope for some kind of saw in relations with the United States. Regardless of who out of the current three candidates – McCain, Clinton or Obama – comes to power, there would be no hopes for Lukashenka.
Which candidate could be the most preferable for the Belarusian opposition?
Yakovlevski: John McCain is more preferable to those who oppose the current regime in Belarus. People know him better; they know his position in relations with the Belarusian regime. He has numerously voiced this stance. As for Obama, he is less known. One can only judge about Obama by his adviser – Brzezinski. I don’t think that Brzezinski has a different vision of the situation in Belarus.
McCain’s chief adviser is Henry Kissinger, a patriarch of the American politics. Obama’s adviser is Brzezinski. This is an answer to your question what would happen with the US policy towards Belarus, if Obama became the president.
Does McCain have a good knowledge of the situation in Belarus?
Sannikov: I’d like to say that he numerously met with the leaders of the opposition and other representatives of pro-democracy forces. The meetings took place during a NATO Summit in Riga and on other occasions in Washington. He is also very well aware of the painful topic of the political disappearances in Belarus.
