Gas price for 2008 is known: 67 percent
The gas cost for Belarus in 2008 could be less than $130 per 1000 cubic meters. This information was initially released by a source in Gazprom and later confirmed by Maxim Shein, an analyst from the investment company Broker Credit Service. The European Radio for Belarus explores whether Belarus has indeed managed to achieve favorable conditions.
Broker Credit Service did not confirm this information. Analyst Katsyaryna Krauchanka believes that the prices for Belarus will be higher.
“The price was publicized by the Federal Tariff Agency. But it turned out that the calculation methodology was not completely correct. They are using a different methodology, so it is not quite clear in which proportions the price will grow.
Actually, I think that the price will be higher, but the level will depend on what the sides have agreed on. I estimate that the price will be around $150-160 per 1000 cubic meters”.
Belarus and Gazprom signed a gas deal on December 31, 2006. Under the agreement, Belarus is to pay 67 percent of the European price for the Russian gas supplies.
It is obvious that the price defined in percentage leaves room for maneuvering. What “European” price should be taken as a reference point? Surprisingly, this price is different for different countries.
For instance, Belarus currently pays a half of the European price, or $100. It should mean that the European gas price today is $200. In reality, the price is much higher. Thus, Belarus managed to get a discount from Gazprom.
“The formula is signed. But prices differ from what they are assumed to be”, notes Katsyaryna Krauchanka.
But it seems that officials in Belarus use percents not US dollars when talking about the gas price.
Energy Ministry spokesperson Lyudmila Zyankovich noted that during the recent negotiations the sides did not discuss the gas price, because it is already known.
When we asked her to name it, she was surprisingly furious.
“Everything is written in the contract: 67 percent of the European price! Therefore, nobody discussed the price”.
Lyudmila Zyankovich also assured us that nothing special was taking place during the negotiations and that the volume of the Russian gas supplies in 2008 would remain unchanged.
“It was an ordinary working visit to discuss quarterly supplies in 2007. Roughly speaking, it was basically about checking the books. We will receive the planned volume of gas supplies. There is no problem”.
Energy Ministry said earlier that Belarus’s 2008 Budget would take into account the gas prices. We approached the Finance Ministry in order to find this figure out.
Finance Ministry spokesman Syarhey Zdanovich again referred to 67 percent.
“I don’t know, but it will be in the framework of the reached agreement. The contract was signed. I don’t know the exact figure”.
Economist Aliaksandr Chubryk from the Institute for Privatization and Management believes that it is not critical for Belarus to pay $130 or $150 for gas.
“Naturally, the lower the price is, the easier it will be to pay for the consumed gas. But, generally, it is not critical to pay $130 or $150. We’ll just have to borrow slightly more money externally”.
Belarus presently pays $100 per 1000 cubic meters, although Gazprom initially set the price of $105. One can say that we save $5 per 1000 cubic meters. The total volume of gas, supplied to this country, costs $100 million. For comparison, Russia pays $70 million for the transit of gas through Belarus.
Aliaksandr Chubruk is confident that Belarus could even consume the Russian gas at an average European price. What would this cost our economy? It is good that we have four years for it to happen.
“We have time to make good investments into our energy sector and reduce our potential deficit due to gas supplies. We still have a possibility of covering this deficit through privatization. I think some steps will be taken in this direction”.
Photo: txt.rus.newsru.ua
