Lithuanian expert: Russian-Georgian war has changed EU’s attitude to Belarus
August Georgian conflict has become a turning point for the European policy in Belarus. It made Europeans prolong the moratorium on the sanctions. This is the opinion of a Lithuanian political scientist Laurinas Kashchunos, director of the Eastern Geopolitical Research Centre. According to the political scientist, the EU has a double strategy – working with the opposition and selective contacts with the regime. Kashchunos says that if the EU does not change anything, Russia will simply absorb Belarus or start taking all decisions. In connection with it, Belarus has a better chance to balance between Russia and the European Union due to the current EU policy in Belarus.
Kashchunos agrees with the statement that Russia is a decisive issue in the EU policy when it comes to contacts with Belarus: “Before the Georgian conflict the EU thought that Belarus had to be influenced with the help of Russia. Belarus was considered a Russian domain and the EU could not act different in connection with it. The policy got transformed after the conflict. I think the Russian factor is the most important here”.
According to the political scientist, the European Union plans to make a democratic state out of Belarus. However, it will be a state without Lukashenka and Europe is trying to influence the situation in the country with the help of economy.
The participation of Belarus in “Eastern Partnership” is good for Europeans but it may face some problems: “The situation connected with “Eastern Partnership” is complicated in Belarus unlike in, say, Ukraine, that has already started making certain steps in this direction”.
DELFI
Kashchunos agrees with the statement that Russia is a decisive issue in the EU policy when it comes to contacts with Belarus: “Before the Georgian conflict the EU thought that Belarus had to be influenced with the help of Russia. Belarus was considered a Russian domain and the EU could not act different in connection with it. The policy got transformed after the conflict. I think the Russian factor is the most important here”.
According to the political scientist, the European Union plans to make a democratic state out of Belarus. However, it will be a state without Lukashenka and Europe is trying to influence the situation in the country with the help of economy.
The participation of Belarus in “Eastern Partnership” is good for Europeans but it may face some problems: “The situation connected with “Eastern Partnership” is complicated in Belarus unlike in, say, Ukraine, that has already started making certain steps in this direction”.
DELFI
