EU plans fish sanctions on Belarus. Who will be affected?

She notes that Neronskaya’s business is relatively new, making it difficult to determine its target markets with certainty. However, it can already be assumed that it will not focus on the European Union in order to avoid attracting further scrutiny following investigators’ attention to the company.

As for Santa Bremor and Alexander Mashensky, Russia is likewise its main market. Therefore, Viaznikoutsava says, such restrictions would not deal a serious blow to his business.

“However, the situation would become problematic if sanctions were imposed on imports of fish-processing products or raw materials from the European Union to Belarus and Russia. Mashensky’s raw materials are sourced primarily from Norway and Iceland. If those supplies are cut off, there will be nothing to process, which would lead to significant losses.”

“Neronskaya would face fewer problems in this scenario because her main resources come from the Russian Far East. These supplies are secured through arrangements between Lukashenka and Putin and through fishing quotas. She is unlikely to encounter major difficulties unless she decides to reorient her business toward the European market, which is unlikely.”

“It will be noticeable for Russia”

Economic analyst Andrei Makhouski believes the new EU sanctions could deal a direct blow to Neronskaya’s business. However, he says the primary purpose of the measures is to prevent Russian companies from circumventing sanctions through Belarus.

“As a result, other producers could also be affected, first and foremost Santa Bremor, if Europe concludes that Russia is using them to bypass sanctions. However, it should be taken into account that Santa Bremor exports very small volumes to Europe, so the company may not feel any serious impact. But that is only a theoretical assumption.”